Division Title Odds Jump to 70% with Win for Indianapolis Colts

In the high-stakes world of NFL playoff races, even a single win can drastically reshape a team’s championship chances—and for the Indianapolis Colts, their recent victory over the Tennessee Titans has done more than just improve their record. According to leading sportsbooks and analytics platforms like ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI), the Colts’ division title odds have skyrocketed to 70% following the win, a massive jump from the 42% odds they held just one week prior. This dramatic shift isn’t just a statistical fluke; it’s the result of the Colts seizing control of the AFC South narrative, distancing themselves from rivals, and positioning themselves to capitalize on a favorable remaining schedule. Division Title Odds Jump to 70% with Win for Indianapolis Colts encapsulates the urgency and momentum of this moment, as the Colts move from “playoff contenders” to “division favorites” in the span of 60 minutes. For a team that missed the playoffs last season, this odds increase is a tangible sign that their rebuild is paying off—and that a return to the postseason is within reach.

Division Title Odds Jump to 70% with Win for Indianapolis Colts first and foremost because of the win’s impact on the AFC South standings, which have now tilted firmly in the Colts’ favor. Entering the Titans game, the Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars were tied atop the division with 8-5 records, while the Titans lagged just one game behind at 7-6. The Colts’ 27-17 victory over Tennessee not only improved their record to 9-5 but also handed the Titans their second loss to the Colts this season—giving Indianapolis the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tennessee if the two teams finish with the same record. More importantly, the win came on the same day the Jaguars lost to the Houston Texans, pushing Jacksonville to 8-6 and giving the Colts a one-game lead in the division. Analytics models weigh head-to-head results and divisional record heavily when calculating title odds, and the Colts’ now 4-1 divisional record (compared to Jacksonville’s 3-2) has made them the clear favorites. For example, ESPN’s FPI now projects the Colts to win the division 70% of the time, up from 42fore the Titans game, because the model recognizes that the Colts control their own destiny: if they win their remaining two games, they’ll claim the AFC South title outright.

Another key factor behind Division Title Odds Jump to 70% with Win for Indianapolis Colts is the team’s favorable remaining schedule, which gives them a clear path to lock up the division. The Colts have just two games left in the regular season: a home matchup against the lowly Houston Texans (5-9, last in the AFC South) and a road game against the Las Vegas Raiders (6-8, out of playoff contention). By contrast, the Jaguars—who sit one game behind the Colts—have a much tougher stretch: they face the playoff-bound Baltimore Ravens (11-3) and the division-rival Titans (7-7). Analytics platforms like FPI project the Colts to win both of their remaining games 75% of the time, while the Jaguars are projected to win just one of their two games 60% of the time. This discrepancy in schedule difficulty is a major reason for the Colts’ odds jump: if Indianapolis wins out, they’ll finish 11-5, and even if they split their remaining games (finishing 10-6), they’ll still have a strong chance to win the division if Jacksonville loses one more game. The Colts’ schedule also allows them to rest key players in the final week if they’ve already locked up the division, reducing the risk of injuries and ensuring they’re fresh for the playoffs. For oddsmakers, this combination of easy opponents and schedule flexibility makes the Colts a far safer bet to win the division than the Jaguars.

Division Title Odds Jump to 70% with Win for Indianapolis Colts also reflects the Indianapolis Colts’ recent on-field momentum, which has seen them win four of their last five games and play their best football of the season. Over this stretch, the Colts’ offense has averaged 28 points per game (up from 22 points per game in the first 10 weeks), led by quarterback Anthony Richardson, who has thrown 10 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions in his last five starts. Richardson’s development—particularly his ability to make smart decisions in the red zone and extend plays with his legs—has made the Colts’ offense one of the most dynamic in the league. Defensively, the Colts have also stepped up, allowing just 19 points per game in their last five contests, with defensive tackle DeForest Buckner leading a pass rush that has recorded 12 sacks over this stretch. This momentum is critical for title odds because analytics models and oddsmakers know that hot teams tend to stay hot, especially in the final weeks of the season when motivation is high. For the Indianapolis Colts, their recent success isn’t just a streak—it’s a sign that they’ve figured out how to win close games, execute in critical situations, and adapt to different opponents. This consistency has made them a more reliable pick to win the division than the Jaguars, who have been inconsistent all season (winning three games by 10+ points but also losing four games by 10+ points).

Division Title Odds Jump to 70% with Win for Indianapolis Colts further underscores the Indianapolis Colts’ strength in key areas that win championships, particularly in situational football. The Colts rank 6th in the NFL in red zone efficiency (scoring touchdowns on 63% of their trips inside the 20-yard line) and 8th in third-down conversion rate (42%), two stats that are critical for closing out games and building leads. They also rank 5th in turnover margin (+7), meaning they’re more likely to take the ball away from opponents than to give it away—a key advantage in close games. By contrast, the Jaguars rank 18th in red zone efficiency (56%) and 22nd in third-down conversion rate (38%), and they have a negative turnover margin (-3). These situational strengths make the Colts more likely to win close games, which is crucial in the final weeks of the season when many matchups are decided by a touchdown or less. For example, in their win over the Titans, the Colts converted 3 of 4 third downs in the fourth quarter and scored a touchdown on their only red zone trip in the final period, sealing the victory. Oddsmakers and analytics models factor in these situational strengths when calculating title odds, and the Colts’ dominance in these areas has made them the clear favorites to win the AFC South.

The final takeaway from Division Title Odds Jump to 70% with Win for Indianapolis Colts is that this odds increase isn’t just about winning the division—it’s about the Indianapolis Colts establishing themselves as a legitimate playoff threat. Winning the AFC South would give the Colts a home playoff game, which is a significant advantage in the NFL (home teams win 58% of playoff games). It would also likely mean they avoid a first-round matchup with top-tier AFC teams like the Baltimore Ravens or Kansas City Chiefs, instead facing a wild-card team that is likely less talented. For the Colts, who haven’t won a playoff game since 2018, this is a chance to end their playoff drought and build momentum for a deep postseason run. The 70% division title odds also send a message to the rest of the league: the Colts are no longer a rebuilding team—they’re a contender. As they prepare for their final two regular-season games, the Colts know that every play counts, and that a division title is within their grasp. For fans, this odds jump is a reason to be excited, as it’s a tangible sign that the team’s hard work and dedication are finally paying off. And for the Colts’ players and coaches, it’s a reminder that they have the talent, the momentum, and the opportunity to make this season one to remember.