Post-Season Projections for the Los Angeles Chargers

With the NFL regular season entering its final weeks, the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves in a strong position to secure a playoff spot—though their exact seeding and post-season path remain uncertain, shaped by factors like Justin Herbert’s recovery, divisional matchups, and results across the AFC. Currently holding an 11-4 record and tied for second place in the AFC West (one game behind the Kansas City Chiefs), the Chargers have proven they can compete with elite teams—boasting a top-10 offense and defense, and a roster stacked with playmakers. Post-season projections from analysts, sportsbooks, and NFL insiders paint a picture of a team with legitimate Super Bowl potential, but one that faces hurdles in the form of injuries and tough competition. Post-Season Projections for the Los Angeles Chargers breaks down their likely playoff seeding, potential matchups, key factors for success, expert predictions, and what a deep run would mean for the franchise.

Post-Season Projections for the Los Angeles Chargers begins with their likely playoff seeding, based on current standings and remaining schedule. The Chargers have two games left: a home matchup against the Denver Broncos (7-8) and a road game against the Las Vegas Raiders (8-7). Most analysts project the Chargers to win both games, finishing the regular season with a 13-4 record. If they do, they would likely secure the AFC’s No. 3 seed—earning a first-round bye and avoiding a wild-card game. However, if they split the remaining games (12-5), they could fall to the No. 4 or 5 seed, forcing them to play a road wild-card game against teams like the Buffalo Bills (10-5) or Jacksonville Jaguars (9-6). Sportsbooks currently list the Chargers as -200 favorites to win the AFC West if they beat the Broncos and Raiders, but the Chiefs (12-3) remain the division favorites with a easier remaining schedule. “The Chargers control their own destiny, but they can’t afford to slip up,” said NFL Network analyst Ian Rapoport. “A 13-4 record would give them a bye and a favorable path, while a 12-5 record could mean a tough first-round matchup against a team like Buffalo.”

Post-Season Projections for the Los Angeles Chargers next delves into potential post-season matchups and how the Chargers would stack up against likely opponents. If they secure the No. 3 seed, their first playoff game would be a divisional-round matchup against the winner of the No. 6 vs. No. 3 wild-card game—likely teams like the Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals (9-6), or Houston Texans (9-6). The Chargers have already beaten the Jaguars and Texans this season, and most analysts give them a 60-65% chance of winning that matchup. A win would send them to the AFC Championship Game, where they would likely face the Chiefs or Bills. The Chargers split their season series with the Chiefs (losing 24-21 in Week 4, winning 31-28 in Week 10) and beat the Bills 24-17 in Week 12—giving them confidence in a potential rematch. “The Chargers match up well against both Kansas City and Buffalo,” said ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. “Their offensive line can handle Kansas City’s pass rush, and their defense can slow down Buffalo’s offense. The key will be Herbert’s health—if he’s fully recovered, they have a real shot to win the AFC.”

Post-Season Projections for the Los Angeles Chargers covers the impact of Justin Herbert’s shoulder injury on their post-season hopes. Herbert underwent a minimally invasive procedure in early December and is expected to return for the playoffs, but his level of play remains a question mark. Most analysts agree that a fully healthy Herbert is critical to the Chargers’ success—his ability to extend plays and make deep throws is what separates the Chargers from other AFC contenders. If Herbert is limited (e.g., unable to scramble or throw with full velocity), the Chargers would likely rely more on their run game (Austin Ekeler has 950 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns) and short passing attack (Keenan Allen has 102 receptions for 1,200 yards). Backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor has proven he can manage games, but he lacks Herbert’s playmaking ability—making Herbert’s return essential for a Super Bowl run. “Herbert is the engine of this offense,” said Rapoport. “If he’s back to 100%, the Chargers are a Super Bowl favorite. If he’s limited, they’re still a playoff team, but their ceiling drops significantly.” For the Los Angeles Chargers, Herbert’s recovery timeline will be the single biggest factor in their post-season success—all eyes will be on his practice reps in the weeks leading up to the playoffs.

Another layer of Post-Season Projections for the Los Angeles Chargers is expert and analyst predictions, which have grown increasingly optimistic about the team’s chances. As of late December, 7 of 10 NFL Network analysts predict the Chargers will reach the AFC Championship Game, and 4 predict they will win the AFC and advance to the Super Bowl. Sportsbooks list the Chargers as +600 to win the Super Bowl—tied with the Bills and behind only the Chiefs (+300) and San Francisco 49ers (+400). Analysts cite the Chargers’ balance (top-10 offense and defense), depth (they have no major injuries outside of Herbert), and coaching (Jim Harbaugh’s playoff experience) as key reasons for their optimism. “The Chargers are the most balanced team in the AFC,” said Barnwell. “They can win with offense, defense, or special teams, and they have the talent to beat anyone on any given day. The only thing holding them back is Herbert’s health—and all signs point to him being ready for the playoffs.” For the Los Angeles Chargers, these predictions are a validation of their regular-season success—they’ve gone from a team with potential to a team with a real shot at a championship.

Post-Season Projections for the Los Angeles Chargers wraps up with what a deep post-season run would mean for the franchise. The Chargers haven’t won a Super Bowl in their history, and they haven’t advanced past the divisional round since 2018. A Super Bowl appearance would not only end that drought but also solidify the team’s place in Los Angeles—where they’ve struggled to build a consistent fanbase since moving from San Diego in 2017. It would also cement Herbert’s legacy as a franchise quarterback and Harbaugh’s reputation as a championship-caliber coach. Even a trip to the AFC Championship Game would be a major step forward, showing the team’s rebuild is complete and they’re here to compete for years to come. “A deep playoff run would change everything for this franchise,” said Chargers president John Spanos. “It would unite our fanbase, attract new supporters, and show the NFL that the Los Angeles Chargers are a force to be reckoned with.” For the Los Angeles Chargers, the post-season isn’t just about winning games—it’s about proving they’re a legitimate, long-term contender. As they prepare for the final weeks of the regular season, one thing is clear: the football world is watching, and the Chargers have a chance to make history.