AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios Involve the Baltimore Ravens

With just four games left in the NFL regular season, the AFC North race remains tight, and a series of potential tiebreaker scenarios could determine whether the Baltimore Ravens secure the division title, a wild-card spot, or miss the playoffs entirely. The Ravens currently sit atop the division with a 9-4 record, but the Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5) and Cincinnati Bengals (8-5) are hot on their heels, and the Cleveland Browns (7-6) still have an outside chance to climb into contention. The NFL’s tiebreaker rules—hierarchical and often nuanced—will play a critical role if teams finish with identical records, and understanding these scenarios is key for Ravens fans hoping to predict their team’s postseason path. AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios Involve the Baltimore Ravens breaks down each possible tie, the rules that will decide them, and what they mean for the Ravens’ playoff aspirations.

AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios Involve the Baltimore Ravens begins with the most likely scenario: a 2-team tie between the Ravens and the Steelers for the division title. If both teams finish with the same record, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head record—and the Ravens currently hold the edge, having defeated the Steelers 17-10 in Week 5. That means if the Ravens and Steelers end the season tied, Baltimore would win the division outright, regardless of other results. However, if the Steelers defeat the Ravens in their Week 17 rematch (in Pittsburgh), the head-to-head record becomes 1-1, and the tiebreaker moves to divisional record (wins against AFC North opponents). Entering Week 15, the Ravens have a 3-1 divisional record (wins over Steelers, Bengals, Browns; loss to Bengals), while the Steelers are 2-2 (win over Browns; losses to Ravens, Bengals). If the Ravens win their remaining divisional games (Week 17 at Steelers, Week 18 vs. Browns), their divisional record would be 5-1—likely enough to edge the Steelers even if Pittsburgh wins its other divisional game (Week 16 vs. Bengals). “Head-to-head is the first line of defense for the Ravens,” said NFL analyst and former referee Gene Steratore. “If they hold onto that edge, they control their own destiny in a 2-team tie with Pittsburgh.”

AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios Involve the Baltimore Ravens shifts to a more complex scenario: a 3-team tie between the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals. This would occur if all three teams finish with the same record, which remains plausible given their remaining schedules (all three still play each other). The first tiebreaker here is also head-to-head record among the three teams—and the Ravens currently have a 2-1 record in those matchups (win over Steelers, win over Bengals, loss to Bengals), while the Bengals are 2-1 (wins over Ravens, Steelers; loss to Ravens) and the Steelers are 0-3 (losses to Ravens, Bengals twice). If the head-to-head record is tied (e.g., if the Bengals lose to the Steelers in Week 16 and the Ravens lose to the Steelers in Week 17), the tiebreaker moves to divisional record. The Ravens’ current 3-1 divisional mark gives them an advantage over the Bengals (2-2) and Steelers (2-2), but that could shift if they drop their remaining divisional games. For example, if the Ravens lose to the Steelers and Browns, their divisional record would fall to 3-3, while the Bengals could improve to 4-2 by beating the Steelers and Browns. In that case, Cincinnati would win the division, and the Ravens would fall to a wild-card spot—if they qualify. “3-team ties are where things get messy,” Steratore noted. “The Ravens need to protect their divisional wins to avoid getting leapfrogged by the Bengals or Steelers.”

AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios Involve the Baltimore Ravens delves into the implications of a tie that pushes the Ravens into the wild-card race. If the Ravens fail to win the division (e.g., a 3-team tie where Cincinnati or Pittsburgh edges them out), they would compete for one of the AFC’s three wild-card spots. The wild-card tiebreakers follow the same hierarchy as divisional tiebreakers but expand to include conference record (wins against AFC teams) and common opponents. Entering Week 15, the Ravens have an 8-3 conference record, which is strong compared to other potential wild-card teams like the Indianapolis Colts (7-5) and Jacksonville Jaguars (7-6). However, if the Ravens lose their remaining conference games (all four remaining games are against AFC teams), their conference record could drop to 8-7, making them vulnerable. For the Baltimore Ravens, securing the division is far more desirable than a wild-card spot: division winners get a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the playoffs, while wild-card teams have to play in the opening round (often on the road). “A wild-card spot is better than nothing, but it’s a much tougher path to the Super Bowl,” said Ravens legend Ray Lewis. “The Ravens need to avoid that scenario by winning the division—plain and simple.”

AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios Involve the Baltimore Ravens explores how the Ravens’ remaining schedule impacts these tiebreaker scenarios. Baltimore’s final four games are against the San Francisco 49ers (NFC, Week 15), Miami Dolphins (AFC, Week 16), Pittsburgh Steelers (AFC North, Week 17), and Cleveland Browns (AFC North, Week 18). Wins against the 49ers and Dolphins (both playoff contenders) would boost the Ravens’ overall record and strengthen their position in case of a tie, while wins against the Steelers and Browns would lock up their divisional advantage. Losses to the Steelers and Browns, however, could erase their divisional record edge and open the door for a 3-team tie. For the Baltimore Ravens, the key is to win at least two of their remaining four games—preferably the two divisional matchups—to avoid relying on tiebreakers altogether. “The best way to handle tiebreakers is to not need them,” said Ravens head coach John Harbaugh. “We control our own destiny if we win our games, and that’s what we’re focused on.”

AFC North Tiebreaker Scenarios Involve the Baltimore Ravens wraps up with what these scenarios mean for Ravens fans and the team’s postseason mindset. For fans, understanding tiebreakers helps manage expectations: a win over the Steelers in Week 17 would all but guarantee the division, while a loss would force them to root for other teams (like the Browns to beat the Bengals) to stay in contention. For the team, the tiebreaker scenarios reinforce the importance of every snap—especially in divisional games. The Ravens have already shown they can win tough games (e.g., their 27-24 overtime win over the Bengals in Week 12), but they need to maintain that focus to avoid letting the division slip away. For the Baltimore Ravens, the AFC North tiebreaker scenarios are a reminder that in the NFL, no win is insignificant—and every loss can have ripple effects that change the course of a season. “We’re not thinking about tiebreakers right now,” said quarterback Lamar Jackson. “We’re thinking about winning the next game, then the one after that. If we do that, the rest will take care of itself.” For Ravens fans, that’s the best possible approach—and the surest way to avoid the stress of waiting for tiebreakers to decide their team’s fate.