Overly Conservative Playcalling Challenges the Denver Broncos

In the high-stakes landscape of the NFL, playcalling is a balance between aggression and caution—but for the Denver Broncos in 2024, that balance has tilted too far toward conservatism, creating significant challenges for their offense and playoff aspirations. Overly Conservative Playcalling Challenges the Denver Broncos isn’t just a criticism from fans or analysts; it’s a tangible issue that has cost the team wins, stifled player creativity, and left their high-priced talent underutilized. From predictable run calls on third-and-long to reluctance to throw deep against vulnerable secondaries, the Broncos’ offensive strategy has often prioritized avoiding mistakes over seizing opportunities. For a team with weapons like quarterback Russell Wilson, wide receiver Marvin Mims, and running back Javonte Williams, this cautious approach has felt like a waste of potential—leaving players and fans frustrated and the team stuck in a cycle of missed chances. As the Broncos enter the stretch run of the season, addressing their conservative playcalling has become a make-or-break priority.

Overly Conservative Playcalling Challenges the Denver Broncos first became a noticeable issue during their Week 6 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, a game where the offense failed to capitalize on multiple high-leverage situations. Trailing 17-14 with 3 minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Broncos found themselves with a first-and-10 at the Raiders’ 35-yard line—prime territory to either tie the game with a field goal or take the lead with a touchdown. Instead of leaning on Wilson’s arm or Mims’ speed for a deep shot, offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi called three consecutive running plays: two for Williams (gaining 4 and 2 yards) and one for backup running back Samaje Perine (gaining 1 yard). The Broncos were forced to settle for a 48-yard field goal, which missed wide left, and the Raiders held on for the win. Post-game, Wilson acknowledged the frustration indirectly: “We have the talent to make plays downfield. Sometimes we just need to trust it.” Analysts echoed this sentiment, noting that the Raiders’ secondary was ranked 28th in the NFL against deep passes that week—a perfect opportunity wasted by conservative calls. This game wasn’t an anomaly; it was a preview of the challenges to come.

A key consequence of Overly Conservative Playcalling Challenges the Denver Broncos is the impact on player performance and confidence, particularly for skill-position players. Mims, a dynamic deep threat who averaged 18.5 yards per catch in 2023, has seen just 12 deep targets (20+ yards downfield) in 10 games this season—down from 27 in 2023. When asked about the lack of deep opportunities, Mims was diplomatic but clear: “I’m ready whenever my number is called, but obviously, I want to help the team in the ways I know I can.” Wilson, too, has struggled with the limited playbook: his average depth of target (ADOT) is 7.8 yards this season, the lowest of his 13-year career, and he’s thrown just 8 touchdowns—well below his career average of 26 per season. Conservative calls also put more pressure on the offensive line and running backs, who are forced to convert short-yardage situations repeatedly. Against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9, the Broncos called 11 running plays on third down (including 5 on third-and-5 or more), converting just 3—wasting clock and keeping the defense on the field for extended stretches. “When you’re predictable, defenses can stack the box and force you into mistakes,” said former Broncos offensive lineman Mark Schlereth. “The players start second-guessing themselves, and that’s when you see lapses in execution.”

Overly Conservative Playcalling Challenges the Denver Broncos also extends to fan and media frustration, which has grown louder as the season progresses. Broncos fans have taken to social media to criticize Lombardi’s playcalling, with #LombardiOut trending locally after the Week 6 loss to the Raiders. Local sports radio hosts have dissected game film, pointing out missed opportunities: in a Week 8 win over the Chicago Bears, the Broncos had a first-and-goal at the 5-yard line but called four consecutive runs (all stopped short) before settling for a field goal—costing them a chance to take a two-score lead and forcing the defense to hold on late. National analysts have also weighed in: ESPN’s Mina Kimes noted that the Broncos “have one of the most talented offenses on paper, but their playcalling treats them like a bottom-tier unit.” Even head coach Sean Payton, known for aggressive playcalling during his time with the New Orleans Saints, has faced questions about the team’s caution. When asked about the playcalling in a recent press conference, Payton defended Lombardi but acknowledged: “We need to find ways to be more explosive. That’s on all of us.” For the Denver Broncos, this external pressure isn’t just noise—it’s a reflection of a fanbase that expects more from a team with championship aspirations and a $245 million quarterback.

Another critical challenge of Overly Conservative Playcalling Challenges the Denver Broncos is its impact on divisional and playoff competitiveness, as the AFC West features aggressive offenses like the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. The Broncos have lost both matchups against the Chiefs this season, and in both games, conservative playcalling was a factor: in Week 2, they called 28 running plays (compared to 22 passes) despite trailing by 10 points in the fourth quarter; in Week 9, they failed to convert a fourth-and-2 at the Chiefs’ 30-yard line with 2 minutes left (electing to punt instead of going for it), allowing Kansas City to run out the clock. Against the Chargers, the Broncos’ caution was equally costly: in a Week 10 loss, they had a third-and-3 at the Chargers’ 20-yard line but called a run play that gained 1 yard, leading to a field goal instead of a touchdown. “In the AFC West, you can’t win by playing not to lose,” said former Broncos quarterback John Elway. “The Chiefs and Chargers attack every down, and if you’re too conservative, they’ll exploit it.” For the Denver Broncos, this lack of aggression has left them trailing in the divisional race—sitting at 6-5, two games behind the Chiefs—and fighting for a wild-card spot instead of competing for a division title.

Looking ahead, addressing Overly Conservative Playcalling Challenges the Denver Broncos will require a shift in philosophy, not just personnel. Payton has hinted at potential changes, including more input from Wilson on game-day playcalling and increased use of pre-snap motion to create mismatches. The Broncos could also look to their past for inspiration: in 2013, when they reached the Super Bowl, they had one of the most aggressive offenses in the NFL, led by Peyton Manning’s record-breaking passing attack. Reconnecting with that aggressive identity would mean trusting Mims’ speed on deep routes, using Williams in the passing game more (he has just 15 catches this season, down from 42 in 2022), and being willing to go for it on fourth down in opponent territory. For the Denver Broncos, the time to make this shift is now: with five games left in the regular season, including matchups against playoff contenders like the Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns, conservative playcalling could cost them a spot in the postseason. As Wilson put it after the Week 10 loss: “We have the talent to win big games. We just need to play like it—no more holding back.” If the Broncos can embrace aggression, they still have a chance to turn their season around; if not, their conservative approach will likely be remembered as the reason they fell short.