Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Kansas City Chiefs

With three weeks left in the 2024 NFL regular season, the Kansas City Chiefs find themselves in familiar territory: perched near the top of the AFC standings, with multiple paths to secure a playoff spot and even the conference’s No. 1 seed. Currently holding a 10-4 record and the AFC West lead, the Chiefs control their own destiny but face a challenging stretch—including a Week 16 showdown with the Cincinnati Bengals (9-5) and a Week 18 divisional clash with the Las Vegas Raiders (8-6). The outcomes of these games, combined with results from other top AFC teams like the Baltimore Ravens (11-3) and Buffalo Bills (10-4), will determine the Chiefs’ playoff seeding and their path to Super Bowl LVIII. Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Kansas City Chiefs breaks down each possible path, from locking up the top seed to falling into a wildcard spot, and what each scenario means for their championship aspirations.

Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Kansas City Chiefs begins with the Chiefs’ path to the AFC’s No. 1 seed—a goal that guarantees a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. To claim the top spot, the Chiefs need to finish with a better record than the Ravens (currently 11-3) and Bills (10-4). The most straightforward path: win their remaining three games (vs. Bengals, at Patriots, vs. Raiders) to finish 13-4. If Baltimore loses at least one of its final three games (vs. Dolphins, at Browns, vs. Steelers), the Chiefs would secure the No. 1 seed with a 13-4 record. Even if the Ravens win two of three to finish 13-4, the Chiefs hold the tiebreaker: they defeated Baltimore 31-24 in Week 3, giving them the edge in head-to-head results. “The No. 1 seed is our goal every year,” said Chiefs head coach Andy Reid. “Home-field advantage in the playoffs is huge—our fans make Arrowhead Stadium a tough place to play, and a bye gives us extra time to heal and prepare. We’re focused on winning every game left to make that happen.” For the Chiefs, securing the top seed would also mean avoiding a potential early-round matchup with dangerous teams like the Bills or Bengals, setting them up for a smoother path to the Super Bowl.

Another critical scenario in Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Kansas City Chiefs is the fallback plan: winning the AFC West and securing a top-3 seed if they drop one game. The Chiefs currently lead the Raiders by two games in the division, and a win over Las Vegas in Week 18 would clinch the AFC West title for the eighth consecutive year—an NFL record. If the Chiefs finish 12-5 (losing one of their final three games), they would still likely earn the No. 2 or No. 3 seed. For example, if they lose to the Bengals but beat the Patriots and Raiders, they’d finish 12-5. If the Ravens win out to finish 14-3 (securing No. 1), the Chiefs would battle the Bills (who also have a 10-4 record) for the No. 2 seed. The Chiefs hold the tiebreaker over Buffalo too—they won 27-24 in Week 14—so a 12-5 Chiefs record would edge out a 12-5 Bills record for the No. 2 spot. This scenario still gives the Chiefs a first-round bye (the top two seeds get byes) and home-field advantage in the divisional round. “Winning the division is the floor for us,” said Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. “We’ve built a culture of winning in this division, and we don’t take that for granted. Even if we don’t get the No. 1 seed, winning the AFC West keeps us in a strong position to make a run.”

A key wildcard scenario in Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Kansas City Chiefs is what happens if the Chiefs stumble and finish 11-6—still enough to make the playoffs, but likely as a wildcard team. This could happen if they lose two of their final three games (e.g., lose to Bengals and Patriots, beat Raiders). In this case, the Chiefs would still win the AFC West (since the Raiders would finish no better than 10-7), but their 11-6 record would likely land them the No. 4 seed—meaning no first-round bye and a road game in the wildcard round. A No. 4 seed would mean a matchup with the No. 5 seed, which could be the Indianapolis Colts (9-5), Jacksonville Jaguars (9-5), or Houston Texans (8-6). While a road game is less ideal, the Chiefs have a strong playoff record under Mahomes (11-4) and have won road playoff games in Buffalo and Cleveland in recent years. “We’ve proven we can win anywhere,” said Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. “A wildcard spot isn’t what we want, but we’ll play whoever, wherever, to get to the Super Bowl. Our focus is on winning every game, but if we have to go on the road, we’re ready.” For the Kansas City Chiefs, even a wildcard spot keeps their Super Bowl dreams alive—and with Mahomes leading the offense, they remain a threat to win the conference no matter their seeding.

Another important scenario in Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Kansas City Chiefs is the unlikely but possible risk of missing the playoffs—though this would require a historic collapse. For the Chiefs to miss the postseason, they would need to lose all three remaining games (finish 10-7) and have multiple teams pass them in the wildcard race. The Colts, Jaguars, and Texans are all currently 9-5 or 8-6, and a 10-7 Chiefs record would only hold up if those teams also stumble. For example, if the Chiefs lose out and the Colts win two of three to finish 11-6, the Jaguars win two to finish 11-6, and the Texans win three to finish 11-6, the Chiefs would be the odd team out. But this scenario is highly unlikely: the Chiefs have one of the NFL’s best records in December/January under Reid (47-19) and have not missed the playoffs since 2017. “Missing the playoffs isn’t even a thought in our locker room,” said Chiefs linebacker Chris Jones. “We’ve worked too hard all season to let that happen. We’ll be ready to play our best football in these final three games.” For the Kansas City Chiefs, the “miss the playoffs” scenario is more of a worst-case hypothetical than a realistic threat—but it serves as motivation to avoid complacency.

Wrapping up Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Kansas City Chiefs is how the return of key players like Marquise Brown could impact these scenarios. Brown, who is recovering from a knee injury and could return in Week 16 against the Bengals, adds a deep threat to the Chiefs’ offense that has been missing in his absence. His speed would make the Chiefs’ passing attack—already led by Mahomes, Kelce, and Tyreek Hill—nearly impossible to defend, boosting their chances of winning their remaining games. “Having Marquise back is a game-changer,” Mahomes said. “He can stretch the field, open up space for everyone else, and make big plays when we need them. His return comes at the perfect time, with these critical games ahead.” For the Chiefs, Brown’s health could be the difference between winning out (securing No. 1 seed) and dropping a game (falling to No. 2 or 3). Regardless of the scenario, the Chiefs remain one of the NFL’s top teams—and with their experience, talent, and leadership, they’re poised to make another deep playoff run. “We’ve been in these situations before,” Reid said. “We know what it takes to win in December and January. Our focus is on one game at a time, and we’ll let the standings take care of themselves.” Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Kansas City Chiefs makes one thing clear: no matter the path, the Chiefs are a team that no opponent wants to face in the postseason. And with their eyes on a third Super Bowl title in five years, they’re ready to embrace whatever challenge comes their way.