Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Las Vegas Raiders

With the NFL regular season entering its final stretch, the Las Vegas Raiders find themselves in a precarious but still viable position to chase a playoff spot. Currently sitting at 5-6, the Raiders face a brutal remaining schedule that includes divisional rivals and playoff contenders alike—making each win critical to their postseason hopes. To clarify the path forward, analysts and NFL experts have outlined a range of playoff scenarios for the Raiders, each dependent on their own performance, the outcomes of other AFC teams, and even tiebreaker rules. These scenarios range from a realistic path to a wild-card spot with a strong finish to elimination if they drop key matchups. Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Las Vegas Raiders breaks down the most likely paths to the playoffs, the obstacles standing in the way, and what the Raiders need to do to keep their postseason dreams alive.

The first and most optimistic scenario for the Raiders is a late-season winning streak that secures a wild-card spot outright. For this to happen, the Raiders would need to win at least four of their remaining five games—starting with a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 13, followed by wins against teams like the Kansas City Chiefs, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, and Indianapolis Colts. A 4-1 or 5-0 finish would push their record to 9-8 or 10-7, a mark that has historically been enough to claim one of the AFC’s three wild-card spots. To make this scenario a reality, the Raiders’ offense would need to maintain its recent momentum (averaging 27 points per game over the past three weeks) while the defense improves its consistency—specifically, reducing the 24 points per game it has allowed this season. Key players like Jimmy Garoppolo and Davante Adams would need to stay healthy and productive, as any drop-off in their performance could derail the streak. Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Las Vegas Raiders frames this winning-streak scenario as the most straightforward path to the playoffs, but also acknowledges it requires near-perfect execution.

A more realistic but still challenging scenario is the Raiders finishing with an 8-8 record and relying on tiebreakers to earn a wild-card spot. For this to work, the Raiders would need to win three of their remaining five games—likely splitting their divisional matchups (beating the Chargers and Broncos but losing to the Chiefs) and winning two of their non-divisional games (against the Patriots and Colts). An 8-8 record would put them in a crowded field of AFC teams fighting for the final wild-card spot, forcing them to rely on tiebreakers like head-to-head results, conference record, and strength of schedule. For example, if the Raiders beat the Chargers twice this season (they already won the first matchup in Week 4), that head-to-head win could give them an edge over the Chargers if both finish with the same record. Additionally, the Raiders would need other wild-card contenders like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati Bengals, or Jacksonville Jaguars to drop at least two more games, opening a spot for them. This scenario hinges on both the Raiders’ ability to win key games and the misfortune of other teams, making it a delicate balance of control and luck. Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Las Vegas Raiders emphasizes that while this path is more attainable, it leaves little room for error.

For the Las Vegas Raiders, a scenario where they win just two of their remaining five games (finishing 7-9) would likely end their playoff hopes, barring a historic collapse from multiple AFC teams. A 7-9 record has only earned a playoff spot once in the past decade (the 2010 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC), and the AFC is currently too competitive for that mark to be viable. Even if the Raiders upset a top team like the Chiefs, two wins would leave them behind at least five or six AFC teams with better records—including the Chargers (currently 7-4), Steelers (6-5), and Bengals (6-5). In this scenario, the Raiders would be eliminated by Week 16 or 17, turning their final games into a chance to evaluate young players and build for next season. For the Las Vegas Raiders, this worst-case scenario is a reminder of how critical each remaining game is; dropping just one more contest than the 8-8 scenario would shift their focus from playoff preparation to offseason planning. Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Las Vegas Raiders notes that while this outcome is unwanted, it’s important for the team to prepare for it to avoid distractions if losses mount.

The Las Vegas Raiders also face a divisional title scenario, though it remains a long shot given their current standing in the AFC West. To win the division, the Raiders would need to finish with a better record than both the Chiefs (currently 8-3) and Chargers (7-4)—a feat that would require them to win all five remaining games (finishing 10-7) while the Chiefs lose at least three of their last five and the Chargers lose at least four. This scenario is unlikely because the Chiefs have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the AFC (facing teams like the Patriots, Broncos, and Los Angeles Rams) and have a history of closing strong under Andy Reid. However, if the Chiefs were to suffer unexpected injuries (like a loss to Patrick Mahomes) and the Raiders won both their remaining divisional games (against the Chargers and Chiefs), a division title could become a remote possibility. For the Las Vegas Raiders, this scenario is more of a “dream scenario” than a realistic path, but it highlights the importance of winning divisional games—even if they don’t ultimately claim the title—because those wins boost tiebreaker chances for a wild-card spot. Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Las Vegas Raiders explores this long-shot scenario to show the full range of possibilities, no matter how unlikely.

Finally, a scenario where the Raiders’ playoff fate comes down to the final week of the season is increasingly probable, given the tightness of the AFC wild-card race. In this scenario, the Raiders would enter Week 18 with a 8-7 record, needing a win against the Colts to secure a wild-card spot—while also watching other games unfold. For example, if the Steelers and Bengals both lose their final games, a Raiders win would send them to the playoffs. But if either the Steelers or Bengals win, the Raiders would need additional help, like a loss by another contender. This “win-and-in” scenario would create a high-stakes atmosphere for the Raiders’ final game, with every play carrying the weight of the season. For the Las Vegas Raiders, this scenario is the most thrilling but also the most stressful, as it puts their destiny in their own hands but requires them to perform under maximum pressure. Head coach Josh McDaniels has already emphasized the importance of treating each remaining game like a playoff game, saying, “We don’t have the luxury of looking ahead. Every week is do-or-die, and that’s how we’re preparing.” Playoff Scenarios Outlined Ahead for the Las Vegas Raiders concludes that while the Raiders face an uphill battle, their playoff fate is still in their control—and with a few key wins and some favorable outcomes elsewhere, they could still make a surprise run to the postseason.