Bills Game Predictions Favor the Cincinnati Bengals Slightly

As the Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills prepare to face off in a high-stakes Week 17 matchup, NFL analysts and prediction models have reached a narrow consensus: the Bengals hold a slight edge. This isn’t a runaway favoritism—rather, it’s a nod to Cincinnati’s recent momentum, key player returns, and favorable matchup dynamics against a Bills team dealing with its own inconsistencies. Bills Game Predictions Favor the Cincinnati Bengals Slightly breaks down the factors tipping the scales, from offensive firepower to defensive adjustments, and explains why this game is expected to be a tight, competitive battle with Cincinnati edging out a win. For Who Dey Nation, the slight prediction favor is more than just hype—it’s a validation of the team’s late-season surge and their ability to compete with AFC powerhouses.

Bills Game Predictions Favor the Cincinnati Bengals Slightly begins with the Bengals’ recent form, a critical factor in analysts’ lean. Over their last five games, Cincinnati has gone 4-1, with their only loss coming in a narrow 27-24 contest against the Kansas City Chiefs where they outgained KC in total yards (380-354). During this stretch, Joe Burrow has been sharp, throwing for 1,240 yards, 10 touchdowns, and just 2 interceptions, while the Bengals’ offense has averaged 28.6 points per game—up from their season average of 24.3. Defensively, Cincinnati has tightened up too, holding opponents to 19.4 points per game in those five outings, including a dominant 34-20 win over the Arizona Cardinals where they sacked Kyler Murray three times. “The Bengals are playing their best football at the right time,” said ESPN NFL analyst Mina Kimes. “Their offense is clicking, their defense is making stops in 关键 moments, and that’s the kind of form that wins close games against good teams like the Bills.” The Bills, by contrast, have gone 3-2 in their last five games, with losses to the Denver Broncos and Philadelphia Eagles—teams that, like the Bengals, have strong passing attacks. This recent inconsistency has made analysts hesitant to fully back Buffalo, even with their talented roster.

Bills Game Predictions Favor the Cincinnati Bengals Slightly continues with the matchup’s most impactful variable: the return of Tee Higgins. The Bengals’ star wide receiver, who missed two games with a knee sprain, returned to full non-contact practice in Week 17 and is expected to play against the Bills. Higgins’ presence is a game-changer for Cincinnati’s offense: he’s a red-zone threat (12 catches, 3 touchdowns in the red zone this season) and a reliable target for Burrow, forcing defenses to split their attention between him, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tyler Boyd. Against the Bills’ secondary— which ranks 11th in passing yards allowed but has struggled to contain large, physical receivers—Higgins’ 6’4” frame and ability to win contested catches will be a major advantage. “Losing Higgins hurt the Bengals, but getting him back gives them a third elite receiver that the Bills can’t ignore,” said NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. The Bills, meanwhile, are dealing with uncertainty at cornerback: Tre’Davious White is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, and if he can’t play, Buffalo will rely on backup Taron Johnson to cover either Chase or Higgins— a mismatch the Bengals can exploit. This receiver-cornerback dynamic is a key reason predictions lean slightly toward Cincinnati.

Bills Game Predictions Favor the Cincinnati Bengals Slightly shifts to the defensive matchup, where the Bengals have a clear edge in pass rush consistency. Cincinnati’s defense has recorded 38 sacks this season, with defensive end Trey Hendrickson leading the way with 11—tied for sixth most in the NFL. While Hendrickson is recovering from a knee injury and may be limited, the Bengals still have Sam Hubbard (6 sacks) and Joseph Ossai (4 sacks) to pressure Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Allen, who’s been sacked 34 times this season, struggles when forced to move out of the pocket early—he completes just 58% of his passes under pressure, compared to 72% when he has time to throw. The Bengals’ defensive coordinator, Lou Anarumo, is known for designing blitz packages that confuse quarterbacks, and he’ll likely use a mix of linebacker and safety blitzes to keep Allen off balance. For the Cincinnati Bengals, this pass rush advantage isn’t just about sacking Allen—it’s about forcing him into rushed decisions and turnovers. “The Bengals know how to disrupt Allen,” said former NFL quarterback Kurt Warner. “They’ll send extra rushers, mix up coverages, and make him feel uncomfortable all game long. That’s the blueprint to beating Buffalo.” The Bills’ offensive line, which has allowed 34 sacks this season, hasn’t been consistent enough to fully neutralize Cincinnati’s pass rush, giving the Bengals another slight edge.

Bills Game Predictions Favor the Cincinnati Bengals Slightly delves into the mental and historical factors that are influencing predictions. The Bengals have a recent history of beating the Bills in big games: they defeated Buffalo 27-10 in the 2022 AFC Divisional Playoffs, with Burrow throwing for 242 yards and 2 touchdowns, and the defense holding Allen to just 205 passing yards and 1 touchdown. That playoff win gave Cincinnati confidence against Buffalo, and many players have cited it as a source of motivation heading into this matchup. “We know what it takes to beat the Bills,” Burrow said in a pre-game press conference. “We did it in the playoffs, and we can do it again—we just need to execute our game plan.” The Bills, meanwhile, have struggled to win road games against top AFC teams this season: they’re 2-3 in away games against teams with winning records, compared to the Bengals’ 3-2 home record against winning teams. For the Cincinnati Bengals, playing at Paycor Stadium—where they have a loud, passionate fan base that often disrupts opposing offenses—will be another advantage. The Bills have committed 12 turnovers in road games this season, compared to just 8 at home, and the Bengals’ defense has proven adept at forcing mistakes (18 takeaways this season). This combination of historical success and home-field advantage has made analysts more confident in Cincinnati’s chances.

Bills Game Predictions Favor the Cincinnati Bengals Slightly wraps up with the caveats that make this a tight prediction—and why the Bengals’ slight edge could easily disappear with one mistake. The Bills still have one of the NFL’s most talented rosters: Allen is a dual-threat quarterback who can change the game with his legs (476 rushing yards, 8 touchdowns this season), and wide receiver Stefon Diggs is a deep threat who’s caught 86 passes for 1,100 yards and 8 touchdowns. If the Bengals’ secondary can’t contain Diggs, or if Allen breaks free for a long rushing touchdown, the Bills could take control of the game. Additionally, special teams could play a role: the Bills have one of the league’s best kickers in Tyler Bass (91% field goal accuracy), while the Bengals’ Evan McPherson has struggled lately (83curacy in his last five games). “This is a game that could come down to a field goal, a turnover, or a special teams play,” said Kimes. “The Bengals have a slight edge, but nothing is guaranteed.” For the Cincinnati Bengals, the key to winning will be avoiding turnovers (Burrow has thrown just 2 interceptions in his last five games) and sustaining long drives to keep the Bills’ offense off the field. If they can do that, they’ll likely live up to the predictions and secure a critical win for their playoff seeding. In the end, Bills Game Predictions Favor the Cincinnati Bengals Slightly is a testament to Cincinnati’s late-season resilience and their ability to match up with the NFL’s best. It’s not a guarantee—but it’s a sign that the Bengals have earned the respect of analysts and are poised to compete for a playoff spot.