Playoff Scenarios Favor a Surge by the Cincinnati Bengals

As the NFL regular season winds down, the Cincinnati Bengals find themselves in a rare position of strength: multiple playoff scenarios that tilt in their favor, setting the stage for a potential deep postseason run. From a favorable wild-card matchup to the return of key players and a recent hot streak, the pieces are aligning for the Bengals to surge when it matters most. Playoff Scenarios Favor a Surge by the Cincinnati Bengals breaks down how these scenarios—ranging from seeding outcomes to opponent matchups—create a path for the Bengals to outperform expectations and reestablish themselves as AFC contenders. For Who Dey Nation, these scenarios aren’t just hypothetical—they’re tangible reasons to believe the Bengals can make another run at the Super Bowl.

Playoff Scenarios Favor a Surge by the Cincinnati Bengals begins with the most likely wild-card scenario: the Bengals securing the sixth or seventh seed, which would pit them against either the Baltimore Ravens (third seed) or the Jacksonville Jaguars (fifth seed) in the first round. While facing the Ravens (a division rival) might seem daunting, the Bengals have a history of competing with Baltimore—they’ve split their last four matchups, and their most recent loss to the Ravens was a narrow 24-17 game where they outgained Baltimore in total yards. A matchup against the Jaguars, meanwhile, would play to the Bengals’ strengths: Jacksonville’s defense ranks 20th in passing yards allowed, which would give Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase opportunities to exploit mismatches. “We match up well against both teams,” said Bengals head coach Zac Taylor. “Against Baltimore, we know their run-heavy scheme and can adjust our defense to stop the run. Against Jacksonville, our passing offense can take advantage of their secondary’s vulnerabilities.” NFL analysts agree: ESPN’s playoff projection model gives the Bengals a 62% chance of winning a first-round game if they face the Jaguars, and a 54% chance if they face the Ravens—both above-average odds for a lower-seeded team.

Playoff Scenarios Favor a Surge by the Cincinnati Bengals continues with the scenario of the Bengals climbing to the fifth seed, which would avoid a first-round matchup against the Ravens or the Kansas City Chiefs (the top seed). To secure the fifth seed, the Bengals need to win their final regular-season game against the Cleveland Browns and have the Jaguars lose to the Tennessee Titans. This scenario would pair the Bengals with the fourth-seeded Houston Texans—a team they already beat 30-27 earlier this season. The Texans, led by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, have a talented offense but a defense that ranks 25th in sacks, which would allow Burrow more time to throw and give Trey Hendrickson (if he returns) a chance to pressure Stroud. “Beating the Texans earlier this season gave us valuable film on their scheme,” said Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo. “We know how to disrupt Stroud’s rhythm—we sacked him three times in our first meeting, and we can build on that.” This scenario also gives the Bengals a potential second-round matchup against the Chiefs, but with a week of rest and momentum from a first-round win, the Bengals would enter that game with confidence—they’ve beaten the Chiefs twice in the last two postseasons.

Playoff Scenarios Favor a Surge by the Cincinnati Bengals shifts to the impact of key player returns on these scenarios, particularly the potential comeback of defensive end Trey Hendrickson and wide receiver Tee Higgins. Hendrickson, who’s recovering from a knee injury, is expected to return by the second round of the playoffs (if the Bengals advance), which would strengthen a pass rush that’s already recorded 38 sacks this season. His presence would be critical against teams like the Chiefs or Ravens, who rely on their quarterbacks to extend plays. Higgins, meanwhile, is day-to-day with a knee sprain and could return for the first round—his red-zone ability (12 catches, 3 touchdowns in the red zone this season) would give the Bengals another weapon against tight defenses. “Having Trey and Tee back changes everything,” Burrow said. “Trey can pressure the quarterback, and Tee can win contested catches in the end zone—those are two things we need to win playoff games.” For the Cincinnati Bengals, these returns turn “possible” scenarios into “probable” ones: with a full roster, they’re a more balanced team, capable of winning both high-scoring shootouts and low-scoring grinders. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport noted, “The Bengals’ playoff ceiling goes up significantly if Hendrickson and Higgins are healthy—they’re two players who can turn a close game into a win.”

Playoff Scenarios Favor a Surge by the Cincinnati Bengals delves into how the Bengals’ recent form positions them to take advantage of these scenarios. Over their last four games, the Bengals have won three, with their only loss coming to the Chiefs in a game where they led by 10 points in the third quarter. During this stretch, the offense has averaged 28 points per game, and the defense has held opponents to 19 points per game—improvements that coincide with Chase’s return and the defense’s adjustment to scheme tweaks. “We’re playing our best football at the right time,” said Bengals linebacker Logan Wilson. “Our offense is clicking, our defense is making stops, and we’re winning the turnover battle—those are the things that win playoff games.” The Bengals have also been strong in close games this season, winning six games by seven points or less—a trait that’s critical in the playoffs, where most games are decided by a single score. For the Cincinnati Bengals, this recent form isn’t a fluke—it’s the result of adjustments made earlier in the season, including a more balanced run-pass attack and a focus on limiting turnovers. “We learned from our early-season losses,” Taylor said. “We fixed the things that were holding us back, and now we’re reaping the benefits. That’s the mark of a mature team.”

Playoff Scenarios Favor a Surge by the Cincinnati Bengals wraps up with the scenario of the Bengals making a deep run to the AFC Championship Game, which would require them to win two road games and potentially face the Chiefs in Kansas City. While road playoff wins are difficult (NFL road teams have a 43% win rate in the playoffs since 2020), the Bengals have a history of succeeding in this scenario—they won three road games during their 2021 Super Bowl run, including a win over the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game. The key to this scenario is the Bengals’ ability to handle pressure: Burrow has a 7-3 record in playoff games, and he’s thrown 19 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions in those games. “Joe thrives in pressure situations,” said Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd. “When the game is on the line, he’s the guy you want leading the offense.” This scenario also relies on the defense’s ability to stop top offenses—something they’ve done this season, holding the Chiefs and Ravens to a combined 41 points in their two meetings. For the Cincinnati Bengals, these scenarios aren’t just dreams—they’re realistic paths to success, built on talent, resilience, and timely adjustments. As the regular season ends and the playoffs begin, the Bengals are poised to surge, turning favorable scenarios into tangible wins and giving Who Dey Nation something to cheer about. In the end, Playoff Scenarios Favor a Surge by the Cincinnati Bengals is a story of opportunity—of a team that’s overcome adversity, fixed its flaws, and positioned itself to make another run at glory. For the Bengals, the time to surge is now.