Experts Weigh In on Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances

As the 2024 NFL season enters its critical midpoint, the Miami Dolphins have emerged as a legitimate Super Bowl contender, sparking debates among analysts, former players, and coaches about their ability to end the franchise’s 51-year championship drought. With a balanced roster—featuring an elite offense, a revitalized defense, and a coaching staff with a track record of innovation—the Dolphins have checked many boxes for a title-winning team. But Super Bowl success depends on more than just talent; it requires navigating a brutal AFC playoff field, staying healthy, and performing under the highest pressure. Experts Weigh In on Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances compiles insights from leading NFL experts across different fields, exploring their perspectives on the Dolphins’ strengths, weaknesses, and ultimate odds of lifting the Lombardi Trophy in February. By examining these diverse viewpoints, fans can gain a clearer understanding of whether this Dolphins squad has what it takes to join the league’s elite.

First, NFL Network’s senior analyst Michael Silver—who has covered 12 Super Bowls—argues that the Dolphins’ offense gives them a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl, but their playoff inexperience remains a question mark. Experts Weigh In on Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances must highlight this balance, as Silver’s perspective reflects a common sentiment among analysts. “What sets the Dolphins apart is their ability to score on any drive—Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill are a matchup nightmare for every defense in the league,” Silver said in a recent segment. “But here’s the catch: since 2000, only three teams have won the Super Bowl with a quarterback who hasn’t started at least two playoff games before. Tagovailoa has just one playoff start, and the Dolphins’ core group has never been in a Conference Championship Game. Pressure changes things—look at the 2023 Bengals, who had talent but folded in the playoffs due to inexperience.” Silver gives the Dolphins a 25% chance of winning the Super Bowl, ranking them third in the AFC behind the Chiefs and Ravens. He adds, “If they can win one playoff game to build confidence, their odds jump dramatically. But until then, the inexperience is a red flag.”

Former NFL head coach Tony Dungy—who won Super Bowl XLI with the Indianapolis Colts—offers a more optimistic take, emphasizing the Dolphins’ defensive improvement under Vic Fangio as a key reason for their Super Bowl potential. Experts Weigh In on Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances wouldn’t be complete without Dungy’s perspective, as his experience building championship teams gives him unique insight into roster balance. “The best Super Bowl teams aren’t just good on one side of the ball—they’re dominant on both, and the Dolphins have become that team,” Dungy said in an interview with ESPN. “Fangio’s defense has turned from a liability to a strength; they can stop the run, rush the passer, and create turnovers—three things you need to win in January. I saw this with my Colts teams: when your defense can take pressure off your offense, you can win close games in the playoffs.” Dungy points to the Dolphins’ Week 12 win over the Ravens—where they held Baltimore to 17 points and forced two turnovers—as evidence of their defensive growth. He gives the Dolphins a 30% chance of winning the Super Bowl, noting, “They match up well with the Chiefs—their speed can counter Kansas City’s offense, and their defense can pressure Patrick Mahomes. If they stay healthy, they’re my dark horse to win it all.”

ESPN’s analytics expert Bill Barnwell—who uses advanced metrics to evaluate teams—highlights the Dolphins’ strong situational performance as a key indicator of their Super Bowl readiness, though he cautions about their injury risk. Experts Weigh In on Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances must include Barnwell’s data-driven perspective, as it adds a quantitative layer to the debate. “By every advanced metric, the Dolphins are a top-three team in the NFL,” Barnwell wrote in a recent column. “They rank first in expected points added (EPA) per play on offense, fifth on defense, and third in special teams—only the Chiefs and 49ers have a better overall EPA. What’s most impressive is their performance in high-leverage situations: they’re 6-0 in one-score games this season, which is critical for the playoffs, where most games come down to the final drive.” However, Barnwell flags the Dolphins’ offensive line as a concern—they’ve allowed 28 sacks this season, and starting left tackle Terron Armstead has missed three games with injuries. “Offensive line injuries derailed the 2022 Bengals and 2023 Bills in the playoffs,” Barnwell said. “If Armstead or guard Robert Hunt gets hurt, the Dolphins’ offense could struggle to perform at its best. Based on our model, they have a 28% chance of winning the Super Bowl—good for second in the AFC—but that drops to 15% if they lose a key lineman.”

Former NFL wide receiver and current CBS Sports analyst James Jones—who won Super Bowl XLVIII with the Seattle Seahawks—focuses on the Dolphins’ ability to beat top competition as a make-or-break factor for their Super Bowl chances, drawing on his own playoff experience. Experts Weigh In on Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances benefits from Jones’ firsthand knowledge of what it takes to win in the postseason. “In the playoffs, you have to beat the best teams to win the Super Bowl—and the Dolphins have already proven they can do that,” Jones said on CBS Sports’ “NFL Today.” “They beat the Ravens (a Super Bowl favorite), the 49ers (another top contender), and the Bills twice—those are the teams they’d likely face in the AFC playoffs. When I was with the Seahawks, we didn’t become Super Bowl contenders until we started beating top teams in the regular season—it builds confidence and shows you can perform under pressure.” Jones notes that the Dolphins’ offense is “built for playoff football” because of its ability to score quickly, which can counteract the slow, methodical offenses of teams like the Ravens. He gives the Dolphins a 32% chance of winning the Super Bowl, adding, “They have the playmakers, the coaching, and the mindset to win it all. The only thing missing is playoff experience—and that comes with winning games in January.”

Finally, NFL historian Michael MacCambridge—who has written books on the league’s history—puts the Dolphins’ Super Bowl chances in context, comparing them to past championship teams and emphasizing the importance of avoiding a late-season slump. Experts Weigh In on Miami Dolphins’ Super Bowl Chances gains depth from MacCambridge’s historical perspective, as it frames the Dolphins’ current run against the league’s past greats. “Since the NFL expanded to 32 teams in 2002, only six teams have won the Super Bowl after starting the season 8-2 or better—and all of them maintained their momentum in the final six weeks,” MacCambridge said in an interview with The Athletic. “The Dolphins are 8-2 right now, but they have a tough stretch ahead: games against the 49ers, Chiefs, and Bills. How they perform in those games will tell us a lot about their championship potential.” MacCambridge points to the 1972 Dolphins—who went 17-0 and won the Super Bowl—as a model of consistency, noting, “The best teams don’t let up; they keep improving throughout the season. The 2024 Dolphins have the talent to be that kind of team, but they need to avoid the late-season fade that has derailed teams like the 2021 Cardinals and 2023 Eagles.” He gives the Dolphins a 22% chance of winning the Super Bowl, concluding, “They’re a very good team, but Super Bowl history is unforgiving. To win it all, they’ll need to be perfect when it matters most—and that’s a high bar to clear.”