Why the Miami Dolphins Could Surprise the NFL This Season



Every NFL season has a team that defies expectations—one that enters the year flying under the radar, only to emerge as a playoff contender or even a Super Bowl threat. In 2024, the Miami Dolphins have all the makings of that surprise team. While most analysts focus on perennial powerhouses like the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, the Dolphins have quietly built a roster that balances elite playmaking, defensive grit, and coaching savvy—all ingredients for a breakthrough season. What makes them particularly dangerous is the gap between how they’re perceived and what they’re actually capable of: opponents may underestimate them early, giving Miami a chance to build momentum and shock the league. Why the Miami Dolphins Could Surprise the NFL This Season explores the under-the-radar factors that could turn the Dolphins from a “solid team” into a legitimate contender, and why this could be the year they rewrite the AFC’s hierarchy.

The first reason the Dolphins could surprise the NFL is their defensive transformation— a unit that’s gone from an afterthought to a potential strength, yet still flies under most analysts’ radars. Why the Miami Dolphins Could Surprise the NFL This Season must start here, as defensive improvement is often the most unexpected driver of a team’s breakthrough. Last season, the Dolphins ranked 25th in total defense, but the addition of coordinator Vic Fangio—one of the league’s best defensive minds—has already yielded dramatic results in training camp and preseason. Fangio’s 3-4 scheme maximizes the talents of defensive ends Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb, who have formed a pass-rushing duo that could rival the NFL’s best. Phillips, coming off a 9-sack season, has added 10 pounds of muscle to better handle run defense, while Chubb—acquired mid-last season—has finally had a full offseason to learn Fangio’s system. The secondary, too, has improved: cornerback Xavien Howard, a four-time Pro Bowler, has bounced back from a down year, and rookie safety Cam Smith (drafted in the second round) has impressed coaches with his ballhawking skills. In preseason, the Dolphins held opponents to an average of 16 points per game and forced 7 turnovers—signs that the defense is no longer a liability. If this unit performs even half as well in the regular season as it did in the preseason, it will take pressure off Miami’s offense and make the Dolphins a tough out for anyone.

Another underrated factor in the Dolphins’ potential to surprise is the depth of their offense— a unit that’s more than just Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa, yet still gets labeled as a “one-trick pony” by many analysts. Why the Miami Dolphins Could Surprise the NFL This Season wouldn’t be complete without highlighting this, as offensive depth is what keeps a team competitive when injuries or slumps hit. Beyond Hill and Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have a cast of playmakers who can step up: wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, who averaged 18.3 yards per catch last season, is a deep threat that defenses can’t ignore; tight end Durham Smythe has emerged as a reliable red-zone target (7 touchdowns in 2023); and running back Raheem Mostert, coming off a 1,200-yard season, provides balance with his tough running style. What’s most impressive is the Dolphins’ ability to adjust when Hill is double-teamed: last season, when defenses focused on stopping Hill, Waddle and Smythe combined for 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns. This depth was on full display in the preseason, when backup quarterback Skylar Thompson led the Dolphins to a win over the Atlanta Falcons, connecting with third-string wide receiver Robbie Chosen for a 45-yard touchdown. If the Dolphins can keep their key offensive players healthy—and if their backups continue to develop—they’ll have an offense that can score on anyone, even when their stars are limited.

The Dolphins’ potential to surprise the NFL also hinges on the breakout potential of young players, who have spent the offseason refining their skills and could take their games to the next level in 2024. Why the Miami Dolphins Could Surprise the NFL This Season must include this, as young talent is often the X-factor in a team’s surprise run. Take left tackle Terron Armstead, for example: Armstead is a three-time Pro Bowler, but injuries limited him to just 10 games last season. This offseason, he worked with a biomechanical specialist to fix his foot issues and has looked healthier than he has in years in training camp. A healthy Armstead would stabilize Miami’s offensive line, protecting Tagovailoa and opening up running lanes for Mostert. On defense, linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel—who filled in for the injured Jerome Baker last season—has bulked up and improved his pass-rushing skills. Van Ginkel recorded 5 sacks in 2023, but coaches believe he has the potential to hit double digits this year. Even on special teams, young players like kicker Jason Sanders—who made 92% of his field goals in preseason—could become difference-makers. These young players aren’t just role players; they’re potential stars who could emerge unexpectedly and give the Dolphins a boost no one saw coming.

Another reason the Dolphins could surprise the NFL is their ability to exploit opponents’ weaknesses, a skill that often comes from having a coaching staff that prioritizes game-planning and adaptability. Why the Miami Dolphins Could Surprise the NFL This Season wouldn’t be complete without this, as smart coaching can turn a good team into a great one. Head coach Mike McDaniel and offensive coordinator Frank Smith are masters of tailoring their game plan to exploit what opponents do poorly. For example, if a team has a weak run defense, the Dolphins will lean on Mostert and the running game to control the clock; if a team struggles with deep passes, they’ll let Tagovailoa air it out to Hill and Waddle. This adaptability was on display last season, when the Dolphins beat the Ravens—who had the NFL’s top-ranked run defense—by throwing for 324 yards and using quick passes to keep Baltimore’s defense off-balance. Defensively, Fangio is known for his ability to make in-game adjustments: if an opponent is having success with a certain play, he’ll tweak his scheme to shut it down by the second quarter. This focus on game-planning means the Dolphins won’t be caught off-guard by anyone—and they’ll likely catch a few opponents unprepared, especially early in the season when teams are still figuring out their identities.

Finally, the Dolphins could surprise the NFL because they have nothing to lose—a mindset that often fuels surprise runs in the NFL. Unlike the Chiefs or Ravens, who face enormous pressure to win every game, the Dolphins are flying under the radar. This lack of pressure can be a powerful motivator: players can play loose, coaches can take bold risks, and the team can build confidence without the weight of expectations. Last season, the Cincinnati Bengals used this mindset to reach the Super Bowl in 2021, and the Jacksonville Jaguars used it to win the AFC South in 2022. For the Dolphins, this means they can take chances—like going for it on fourth down in enemy territory or calling a trick play in a tight game—without facing backlash if things go wrong. It also means opponents may not prepare as thoroughly for them: a team like the Chiefs might overlook the Dolphins in Week 4, giving Miami a chance to pull off an upset. As Tagovailoa said in a recent interview, “No one expects us to win the AFC, and that’s fine. We’re just going to keep working, keep improving, and let our play do the talking.”Why the Miami Dolphins Could Surprise the NFL This Season If the Dolphins can turn that underdog mindset into momentum, they could very well be the team that surprises everyone and makes a deep playoff run in 2024.