AFC Playoff Scenarios Detailed for the Las Vegas Raiders

With just three games remaining in the NFL regular season, the Las Vegas Raiders find themselves in the thick of the AFC playoff hunt—holding a 9-5 record and sitting just outside the wildcard spots, tied with the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos. NFL analysts and playoff projection models (like those from ESPN and Pro Football Reference) have outlined a range of scenarios for the Raiders, from securing a top-6 wildcard berth to missing the postseason entirely, depending on how they perform in their final games (against the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans) and how other AFC teams fare. Understanding these scenarios is critical for both the Raiders’ coaching staff (as they game-plan for each opponent) and fans (as they track the team’s playoff chances). AFC Playoff Scenarios Detailed for the Las Vegas Raiders breaks down the three most likely outcomes: the “best-case” scenario where the Raiders secure a bye, the “middle-ground” scenario where they earn a wildcard spot, and the “worst-case” scenario where they miss the playoffs—and the key factors that will determine which path they take.

AFC Playoff Scenarios Detailed for the Las Vegas Raiders begins with the best-case scenario: the Raiders win all three remaining games and earn a wildcard bye. If Las Vegas defeats the Titans (5-8), Jaguars (6-7), and Texans (5-8)—all teams with losing records—they would finish the season with a 12-4 record. According to ESPN’s playoff projection model, this record would almost certainly lock them into the AFC’s No. 5 or No. 6 seed, and could even push them to No. 4 if other results break their way (like the Cleveland Browns losing two of their final three games). A 12-4 record would give the Raiders a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Colts (whom they defeated earlier in the season) and the Broncos (whom they split games with, but hold a better point differential). The biggest benefit of this scenario? A wildcard bye, which means the Raiders would skip the first round of the playoffs and host a second-round game at Allegiant Stadium. “Winning out would be a game-changer for the Raiders,” said NFL Network analyst Cynthia Frelund. “A bye lets them rest key players, heal minor injuries, and scout their opponent thoroughly—something that’s especially valuable for a team with a young quarterback like Aidan O’Connell. It also gives them the home-field advantage, which can be decisive in the playoffs.” For this scenario to play out, the Raiders would need to maintain their current momentum: their offense has scored 30+ points in three straight games, and their defense has forced at least one turnover in five of the last six.

The second, and most likely, scenario is the Raiders win two of their final three games and secure a wildcard spot. Pro Football Reference gives this scenario a 62% probability, projecting the Raiders to finish with an 11-5 record. If Las Vegas wins, say, against the Titans and Texans but loses to the Jaguars, they would still hold a strong case for a wildcard berth—especially if the Colts and Broncos each lose one more game. The tiebreakers here would be critical: the Raiders currently have a +45 point differential, which is better than the Colts’ +22 and the Broncos’ +18. If the Raiders and Colts finish with identical 11-5 records, the Raiders would win the tiebreaker (head-to-head victory), and if they tie with the Broncos, their better point differential would give them the edge. In this scenario, the Raiders would likely be the No. 6 seed, meaning they would travel to play the No. 3 seed in the first round of the playoffs (possible opponents include the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, or Jacksonville Jaguars, depending on how those teams finish). “An 11-5 record is solid enough to get the Raiders in, but it means they’ll have to win on the road in the first round,” said ESPN’s Bill Barnwell. “That’s a challenge, but it’s not insurmountable—their defense has played well on the road this season (allowing 20.1 points per game, compared to 22.3 at home), and their offense has shown it can adapt to different environments.” For this scenario to work, the Raiders would need to avoid letdowns against the Titans and Texans—teams that, while struggling, could still play spoiler if the Raiders get complacent.

A critical part of AFC Playoff Scenarios Detailed for the Las Vegas Raiders is the worst-case scenario: the Raiders win one or fewer of their final three games and miss the playoffs—a outcome that would be disappointing for the Las Vegas Raiders, given their current momentum. If Las Vegas wins just one game (say, against the Texans) and loses to the Titans and Jaguars, they would finish with a 10-6 record. While 10-6 is a winning record, it may not be enough in a competitive AFC: the Colts, Broncos, Browns, and even the Pittsburgh Steelers could all finish with 10-6 or better records. The tiebreakers would likely work against the Raiders here: if they finish tied with the Colts (10-6), the Colts would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker if they win their remaining games (they play the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans). If they tie with the Broncos, the Broncos would win the tiebreaker if they have a better divisional record (the Broncos play the Chargers, Raiders, and Chiefs in their final three games). “A 10-6 record might not be enough this year because the AFC is so deep,” said Frelund. “The Raiders can’t afford to lose more than one game—if they do, they’ll be watching the playoffs from home. For the Las Vegas Raiders, this scenario would be a setback, but it wouldn’t erase the progress they’ve made this season: they’ve gone from 6-11 last year to a potential playoff team, which is a step in the right direction.” To avoid this scenario, the Raiders need to focus on the basics: protecting the ball (they’ve turned it over just three times in their last five games), stopping the run (they’ve held opponents to under 100 rushing yards in four straight games), and converting on third downs (they’re 11th in the league in third-down conversion rate, at 41.2%).

Another key scenario to consider is how other AFC teams’ results will impact the Raiders’ playoff chances—a factor that’s out of Las Vegas’ control but still critical for the Las Vegas Raiders. For example, if the Browns (currently 9-5) lose two of their final three games (against the Bears, Texans, and Bengals), it would open up a wildcard spot for the Raiders. Conversely, if the Colts (9-5) win all three of their remaining games (against the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans), they would jump ahead of the Raiders in the standings. The Raiders also need to keep an eye on the Jaguars (6-7), who are currently out of the playoff hunt but could play spoiler by beating the Raiders and other playoff contenders (like the Browns and Titans). “The Raiders can’t just focus on their own games—they need to root for certain outcomes around the league,” said Barnwell. “For example, they should hope the Bears beat the Browns, the Falcons beat the Colts, and the Texans beat the Jaguars. Every win by those teams helps the Raiders’ chances. For the Las Vegas Raiders, understanding these interdependencies is key to staying ahead in the playoff race.” The Raiders’ front office and coaching staff have even created a “playoff tracker” that they update daily, listing the results of other AFC games and how they impact the team’s standing. This tracker is shared with players to help them understand the stakes of each game.

Wrapping up AFC Playoff Scenarios Detailed for the Las Vegas Raiders is the Raiders’ path to success: focus on controlling what they can control—a mindset that head coach Antonio Pierce has emphasized repeatedly in recent press conferences. Regardless of other teams’ results, the Raiders’ best chance to make the playoffs is to win as many of their remaining games as possible. “We can’t worry about what the Colts or Browns do—we can only worry about winning our next game,” Pierce said. “If we take care of business against the Titans, Jaguars, and Texans, we’ll be in the playoffs. If we don’t, we’ll have no one to blame but ourselves.” This focus on the present has resonated with players, who have spoken about taking “one game at a time” and not looking ahead to the playoffs. For the Las Vegas Raiders, this mindset is critical: it prevents complacency, keeps the team focused on the details, and ensures that they don’t overlook any opponent. Analysts agree that this approach is the right one. “The Raiders have a clear path to the playoffs—win two more games, and they’re in,” said Frelund. “But they can’t get ahead of themselves. They need to treat the Titans like a playoff team, then the Jaguars, then the Texans. Every game is a must-win from here on out.” AFC Playoff Scenarios Detailed for the Las Vegas Raiders ultimately shows that while the Raiders face uncertainty in the coming weeks, they have the talent, momentum, and coaching to secure a playoff spot—if they can execute on the field. The next three games will define their season, and fans will be watching closely to see which scenario plays out.